Analisis Risiko Pembangunan Jalan Tol Pekanbaru - Dumai Pada Tahap Konstruksi (Studi Kasus Jalan Tol Pekanbaru - Dumai)

Abstract

Pekanbaru-Dumai highway is now an important highway, the condition of
the existing road are consist of 2-lane  road 2-way, predictable way Pekanbaru-
Dumai will experience overcapacity in  Kandis-Dumai section in 2015.  To
overcome this situation the toll road is planned.  The investment of  highway
construction will always be involved in risk with certain scale,  it is necessary to
do the risk analysis.
The purpose of this study is to identify and analyze the risk, measuring of
risk probability point and risk impact and  risk test by  performing simulations
using @Risk For Excel software.  This research was conducted using  a survey
method and interview  with respondents. The survey was conducted in three
phases, namely: beginning survey, preliminary survey and detailed survey.
Based on research conducted identified four risk factors are financing
risk, construction risk, equipment risk and force majeure. These four risks are
identified in the medium risk category. The influence  level of  risk impact  to  the
increase of construction investment budget plan Pekanbaru-Dumai toll roads as a
whole amounted to 8.07% (Rp. 1,183 trillion) with risk factor  for 0,549  then
classified as medium risk. While detaily 15% (Rp. 2,194 trillion) by a factor of
0.685 then risk being classified as at risk. The most sensitive  risk is the risk of
development.

Keywords: Risk Analysis, Impact, Pekanbaru-Dumai, Toll Road, Probability